Government Shutdown Looms as Trump, Congress Risk Missing Key Pay Date
As negotiations in Washington remain stalled, the impending government shutdown could soon complicate the lives of the 1.3 million active-duty military members. A crucial pay date looms on October 15, which could prompt Congress to reach an agreement to avoid missing this deadline.
Government Shutdown and Military Pay
Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Alec Phillips have indicated that the scheduled military paycheck may serve as a pivotal point for discussion. They believe this date could incite legislative action to restore funding.
Potential Outcomes of a Missed Pay Date
- Public backlash against Congress could escalate if military members do not receive their salaries.
- Discussions may lead to a temporary solution known as a continuing resolution, allowing the government to operate.
- A prolonged stalemate could occur if no agreement is reached.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs emphasized the pressure that the military pay date may place on both parties to negotiate. However, if a resolution is not found, the Department of Defense might attempt to find a way to compensate troops despite funding issues.
Current Legislative Situation
As of now, the Senate has planned a vote on Monday evening, but observers predict minimal progress. President Donald Trump has warned that failure to agree could result in temporary layoffs becoming permanent.
In addition to military pay, other factors could drive Congress toward compromise, such as:
- Suspended data releases that are critical for policymaking
- Potential airport delays affecting Transportation Security Administration staffing
- Service disruptions for various government services
Key Dates to Monitor
Several significant dates are approaching that may impact the ongoing negotiations:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| October 13 | Expiration of Women, Infants, and Children benefits |
| November 1 | Open enrollment for Obamacare begins |
| November 21 | Congress scheduled to break for Thanksgiving |
Despite these potential catalysts for reaching a compromise, the risk of extending the shutdown remains. Analysts at Pimco note that although shutdowns are relatively easy to initiate, reopening the government can prove challenging. This current shutdown is the first full one since 2013, adding to its complexity and uncertainty.
