Premier League Table Reimagined: Attack Performance vs. Expected Goals
The Premier League is entering its seventh week, and early-season performance metrics are shedding light on team dynamics. This analysis focuses on how well teams are performing relative to their expected goals (xG). Expected goals provide a clear picture of the quality of goal-scoring opportunities based on historical data from similar shots.
Understanding Expected Goals in the Premier League
Expected goals measure the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal based on various factors. For instance, penalties have an xG value of 0.79, highlighting their high conversion rate. Conversely, a distant shot from 50 yards has a much lower likelihood of scoring. This metric is instrumental in evaluating which teams are overperforming or underperforming their xG.
Key Findings from the Current Season
- Manchester United is the biggest underperformer, netting 5.3 goals below expectations.
- Tottenham Hotspur is exceeding expectations significantly by 4.1 goals, raising questions about sustainability.
- Liverpool is the next biggest overperformer, benefiting from unique long-range efforts.
- Leading individual underperformer is Jean-Philippe Mateta of Crystal Palace.
Team Performances and Trends
As the season progresses, some notable patterns are emerging. For example, Manchester United has averaged 2.1 xG per match this season, an improvement thanks in part to new signings. However, they still exhibit inefficiency in converting chances into goals, as highlighted by their high volume of outside-the-box shots.
On the other hand, Tottenham is benefiting from players like Richarlison, whose goals often come from low-xG situations. This raises concerns about whether continuing this trend will be sustainable in the long term.
Breakdown of Expected Goals Performance
| Team | Expected Goals (xG) | Goals Scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 16.4 | 11.1 | -5.3 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11.1 | 15.2 | +4.1 |
| Liverpool | 14.6 | 19.0 | +4.4 |
| Crystal Palace | 8.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
Individual Highlights
Notably, Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes’ penalty misses have contributed to their struggles. Similarly, Crystal Palace’s Mateta is experiencing a lack of finishing, being the league’s worst performer relative to his xG.
As teams strive for improvement in the coming weeks, the interplay between expected goals and actual scoring will significantly impact their standings in the Premier League. This early data hints at potential strategies teams might adopt as they seek to increase their goal tallies.
Conclusion
The analysis of expected goals offers valuable insights into the performance patterns across the Premier League. As teams continue to settle into the season, these metrics will be crucial for evaluating their true potential and trajectory.
