Houston Astros Face Do-or-Die Weekend: Playoff Chances Hang on Final Two Games and Rival Results
The Houston Astros’ playoff dreams are still alive — but just barely. After blowing a three-run lead in Friday night’s 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, the reigning powerhouse finds itself staring at possible elimination with only two games left in the regular season.
For a team chasing its ninth straight postseason appearance, the margin for error has completely vanished. Now, Houston’s destiny isn’t just in its own hands — it depends heavily on what happens in Cleveland.
Current Astros Playoff Situation
Friday’s defeat left Houston with an 85-75 record, one game behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL wild card standings. The problem? Cleveland owns the all-important tiebreaker over the Astros, meaning Houston must finish with a better record outright to advance.
Detroit secured its playoff ticket with a victory over Boston, and Toronto and the Yankees have already clinched their spots. That leaves just one available wild card position — and the Astros are fighting to stay in contention.
Updated Wild Card Standings
| Team | Record | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 92-68 | Clinched playoff spot |
| New York Yankees | 92-68 | Clinched playoff spot |
| Boston Red Sox | 88-72 | Clinched wild card |
| Detroit Tigers | 87-74 | Clinched at least wild card |
| Cleveland Guardians | 86-74 | Hold tiebreaker over Astros & Tigers |
| Houston Astros | 85-75 | Must pass Cleveland to qualify |
What the Astros Need to Reach the Playoffs
The path is razor-thin, but still possible. Here are the scenarios:
If the Astros Win Both Games Against the Angels
-
Houston improves to 87-75.
-
Cleveland must lose both games against the Texas Rangers.
-
Any Guardians victory eliminates Houston due to the tiebreaker disadvantage.
If the Astros Split the Final Two Games (1-1)
-
Houston finishes at 86-76.
-
Not enough to surpass Cleveland, even if the Guardians lose out.
-
Season over.
If the Astros Lose Both Games
-
Houston drops to 85-77.
-
Eliminated immediately, regardless of Cleveland’s performance.
Key Game to Watch: Cleveland vs. Texas
Astros fans will be scoreboard-watching closely on Saturday, as Cleveland takes the field before Houston’s night matchup against the Angels. By the time the Astros step on the diamond at 8:38 p.m., they may already know if their playoff hopes remain alive or if the curtain has fallen on their 2025 season.
Looking Ahead
Should Houston fall short, the offseason begins earlier than expected, with pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in February. But if the chips fall their way this weekend, the Astros could still extend their remarkable postseason streak to nine years — keeping October baseball alive in Houston.
