Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast: Strengthening System Raises Questions About Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Storm Humberto recently developed in the central Atlantic and is now being closely watched by forecasters. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Humberto is producing sustained winds near 45 mph (75 km/h) and is located about 505 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving toward the west-northwest at approximately 10–12 mph (16–19 km/h).
Forecasters expect Humberto to gradually strengthen over the next several days as it traverses waters favorable for intensification.
Forecasted Intensification: Hurricane Potential
Models and meteorologists project that Humberto will become a hurricane by the coming weekend and may reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher) by early next week. Tornado-like strengthening could push Humberto to sustained winds of 115 mph or higher by Monday.
That said, the storm’s ultimate intensity depends on how long it remains over favorable waters and avoids hostile upper-level winds or dry air intrusions. Some forecasts suggest it may plateau or slow intensification later if environmental factors turn less favorable.
Projected Path and Coastal Threats
The present projected track shows Humberto curving northward and then northeastward, steering it away from the U.S. East Coast. Models suggest no direct landfall is expected along the U.S. coastline at this time. However, Bermuda may need to monitor the storm’s evolution, as some model runs bring Humberto closer to the island.
A complicating factor is another tropical disturbance — Invest 94L — currently located near Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. 94L has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Imelda this weekend.
Should 94L intensify, its interaction with Humberto could complicate both storms’ paths. Forecasters are considering the possibility of the Fujiwhara effect, where two cyclones in proximity may rotate around one another, or one could dominate and absorb the weaker system.
Additionally, a trough arriving off the U.S. East Coast may help nudge Humberto (or Imelda if formed) away from land.
Impacts, Risks, and What to Watch
Although Humberto is not currently a threat to land, maritime interests, shipping routes, and coastal swell watchers should be alert. The storm is already producing rough seas and elevated surf in its vicinity.
Meanwhile, Invest 94L (future Imelda) may bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and flooding to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and possibly parts of the southeastern U.S. coast, depending on its trajectory. Coastal surf and rip current threats may extend from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic region in coming days.
Forecasters emphasize that uncertainty remains high, and updates to track, intensity, or timing are likely as more observational data feed into models.
