Adobe Forecasts 520% Growth in AI-Driven Online Shopping for 2025 Holidays
The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is projected to generate $253.4 billion in online sales for 2025, reflecting a 5.3% increase from the previous year. This forecast comes from Adobe Analytics, which analyzes a substantial amount of retail data—over 1 trillion visits and 100 million SKUs across 18 categories. Its insights are utilized by many leading online retailers.
Key Shopping Days and Predictions
- Cyber Monday: Expected to be the largest shopping day, with sales reaching $14.2 billion, an increase of 6.3% year-over-year.
- Black Friday: Anticipated sales of $11.7 billion, marking an 8.3% growth year-over-year.
- Thanksgiving Day: Online spending predicted at $6.4 billion, reflecting a 4.9% increase year-over-year.
Trends Shaping Online Holiday Sales
Several factors are contributing to the rise in online sales this season. Consumers are particularly motivated by discounts, with products projected to be offered at an average of 28% off retail prices. Additionally, the popularity of mobile shopping is expected to continue, with mobile devices predicted to account for 56.1% of online transactions, up from 54.5% in 2024.
The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in online shopping is also set to experience significant growth. Adobe forecasts a remarkable 520% increase in AI-driven shopping traffic leading up to Thanksgiving. This surge follows an extraordinary 1,300% growth in AI traffic observed in 2024. A survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers revealed that 53% may use AI for research before making purchases.
AI Integration and Consumer Preferences
Consumers are increasingly relying on AI for various shopping functions:
- 53% for research
- 40% for personalized recommendations
- 36% for finding deals
- 30% for gift ideas
The categories where AI will have the most impact include toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care items. Furthermore, buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are expected to influence spending significantly. Online sales driven by BNPL are projected to reach $20.2 billion for the holiday season, a rise of 11% year-over-year.
Social Media’s Role in Holiday Shopping
Social media is also anticipated to play a vital role in driving online sales this year. Revenue from social media advertising is expected to grow by 51% year-over-year, a substantial increase compared to the previous year’s growth rate of only 5%.
Top Spending Categories
| Category | Projected Sales ($ billion) | Year-over-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 57.5 | 4% |
| Apparel | 47.6 | 4.4% |
| Furniture | 31.1 | 6.5% |
In summary, the 2025 holiday shopping season is set for remarkable growth, driven by AI, mobile technology, and social media advertising. As consumer preferences evolve, retailers must adapt to these trends to maximize their holiday sales potential.
