Tesla Stock Price Today: Why Analysts Are Divided on the EV Giant’s Next Big Move

Tesla Stock Price Today Shows Modest Gains but Big Swings

Tesla stock price closed at $443.21 today, registering an impressive 0.6% daily gain after hitting $450.98 during intraday trading. Month-to-date performance stands out even by Tesla standards; monthly gains were 27%! Unfortunately, daily volatility averages 3.4% which leaves traders and long-term investors uncertain of a smooth ride ahead.

Tesla's stock volatility is nothing new; historically, the company's shares tend to surge before and after major announcements like quarterly deliveries, product roll-outs, or CEO Elon Musk making prominent statements.

Delivery Numbers Could Set the Tone for the Next Quarter

One of the biggest drivers for Tesla stock price today is anticipation around the company’s Q3 2025 delivery report. Analysts expect around 447,750 vehicles, though the bullish case points to numbers closer to 495,000.

Key factors influencing this quarter’s results include:

• The U.S. EV tax credit expiration on September 30, which likely pulled some demand forward.

• Global market fluctuations, with U.S. demand steady but European sales facing headwinds.

• Increased competition from other electric vehicle makers, particularly in Europe and China.

A stronger-than-expected delivery report could keep the rally alive, but a miss may send shares back down just as quickly.

FSD v14 and the Promise of Autonomy

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14 software is another focal point shaping Tesla stock price today. The update, expected to bring significant improvements over prior versions, is particularly aimed at vehicles with Tesla’s Hardware 4.0 platform.

Investors are not just watching for software performance; they’re watching for proof that Tesla can maintain leadership in AI-driven autonomy. If FSD v14 delivers smoother performance and greater reliability, it could strengthen the bullish thesis that Tesla is more than just a carmaker.

Analyst Upgrades and Rising Price Targets

Several Wall Street voices have grown increasingly optimistic:

• Baird’s Ben Kallo upgraded Tesla to “Buy” with a price target of $548, citing its leadership in autonomy and AI.

• Piper Sandler analysts also raised their expectations, arguing Tesla’s AI ambitions extend well beyond vehicles into robotics and advanced automation.

The table below highlights recent analyst positions:

While upgrades are boosting sentiment, some analysts continue to warn that Tesla’s valuation is stretched, making it vulnerable to any disappointing news.

Risks That Could Slow Tesla’s Momentum

Tesla stock price today reflects optimism, but several risks hang over the company:

1. Overvaluation Concerns – Tesla remains one of the most expensive tech-growth stocks, and critics argue earnings growth may not catch up to its valuation quickly.

2. Legal Challenges – The company is facing a $51 million lawsuit after a robot allegedly injured a factory worker, highlighting risks in its automation efforts.

3. Leadership Compensation Debate – Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion stock-based pay package has drawn criticism and could complicate Tesla’s financial outlook.

4. European Sales Weakness – Deliveries in the EU dropped 36.6% in August 2025 compared to last year, raising questions about Tesla’s pricing strategy and competitiveness.

What Investors Are Watching Next

The coming weeks could determine whether Tesla stock price today is the start of a longer rally or just another temporary spike. Key events include:

• Q3 delivery report and whether it beats forecasts.

• Initial reception and real-world performance of FSD v14.

• Updates on Elon Musk’s compensation plan and shareholder reaction.

• Regional sales data, especially from Europe, to see if demand stabilizes.

Tesla’s story has always been about more than just numbers—it’s about innovation, bold bets, and investor faith in Elon Musk’s vision. For now, Tesla stock price today reflects that blend of risk and potential, keeping markets and investors glued to the next headline.